Tariffs? Trade Wars

[Goldcrest]

Obviously the news is all.about Trump's second 'era' and he has stated he loves the word 'tariff'. Clearly, countries are going to retaliate. Will his tactics work or is this incredibly reckless? 

I've been reading about the Great Depression and how trade policies then didn't help at all. There were many factors but economic confidence was frail.

Surely, the short term prospects would indicate a likelihood of rising prices domestically... inflationary pressure also? 

Article attached for interest.(Canadian source). I'm unsure whether there is an interest in this subject but it's one I've been following.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/t...ade-policy

[Stef N]

All perfomative and irresposible actions from a buffoon with nobody strong enough to tell him this is a stupid move. With so many economies struggling at the moment this is something nobody needs. Hopefully the Chinese and EU call his bluff or else he will keep doing it. Bullying smaller nations will work but bigger blocs will need to punch back. Where this leaves the UK is anyone's guess.

I'm trying to avoid as much Trump as possible because last time sent me mad. Far too much nonsense.

[PurpleCanary]

All perfomative and irresposible actions from a buffoon with nobody strong enough to tell him this is a stupid move. With so many economies struggling at the moment this is something nobody needs. Hopefully the Chinese and EU call his bluff or else he will keep doing it. Bullying smaller nations will work but bigger blocs will need to punch back. Where this leaves the UK is anyone's guess.

I'm trying to avoid as much Trump as possible because last time sent me mad. Far too much nonsense.

---

The weird thing is that many people voted for Trump because of the cost of many basic items even though he promised to put up tariffs that will raise those prices further.

[Goldcrest]

All perfomative and irresposible actions from a buffoon with nobody strong enough to tell him this is a stupid move. With so many economies struggling at the moment this is something nobody needs. Hopefully the Chinese and EU call his bluff or else he will keep doing it. Bullying smaller nations will work but bigger blocs will need to punch back. Where this leaves the UK is anyone's guess.

I'm trying to avoid as much Trump as possible because last time sent me mad. Far too much nonsense.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ec...ty-stupid/

I was reading this today. The last paragraph seems interesting (and worrying). As Purple has said prices will rise. I could have started a thread about Trump's politics and 'style' but I wanted to stick with a focus on the economy. I find it weirdly fascinating but worrying at the same time. I can easily see how businesses might become cautious and short-termist. They might shed staff or conversely find recruitment difficult. And a lot of the strategy is based on an AI boom. 
Just very unsure this is going to work.
I mentioned before that I have this (irrational) belief that we go round in circles, I mean in history. We had a pandemic 100 years ago, we had the sheer folly of the rich and powerful making hay in the 1920s after the war. A lot feels eerily prescient. A crash in the next few years? Who would bet against it?

Who is watching and learning in the UK at all of this unfold? And you'll have seen the latest polls today. A definite shift is happening.

[Stef N]

All perfomative and irresposible actions from a buffoon with nobody strong enough to tell him this is a stupid move. With so many economies struggling at the moment this is something nobody needs. Hopefully the Chinese and EU call his bluff or else he will keep doing it. Bullying smaller nations will work but bigger blocs will need to punch back. Where this leaves the UK is anyone's guess.

I'm trying to avoid as much Trump as possible because last time sent me mad. Far too much nonsense.

---

The weird thing is that many people voted for Trump because of the cost of many basic items even though he promised to put up tariffs that will raise those prices further.

Good old populism. Promise the earth, fail to deliver and/or make it worse and then find someone to blame for the balls up. The supporters will fall for it.

---

---

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ec...ty-stupid/

I was reading this today. The last paragraph seems interesting (and worrying). As Purple has said prices will rise. I could have started a thread about Trump's politics and 'style' but I wanted to stick with a focus on the economy. I find it weirdly fascinating but worrying at the same time. I can easily see how businesses might become cautious and short-termist. They might shed staff or conversely find recruitment difficult. And a lot of the strategy is based on an AI boom. 
Just very unsure this is going to work.
I mentioned before that I have this (irrational) belief that we go round in circles, I mean in history. We had a pandemic 100 years ago, we had the sheer folly of the rich and powerful making hay in the 1920s after the war. A lot feels eerily prescient. A crash in the next few years? Who would bet against it?

Who is watching and learning in the UK at all of this unfold? And you'll have seen the latest polls today. A definite shift is happening.

Now we are piggy in the middle it will be interesting to see which way our PM goes and if he just keeps his head down because we literally cannot afford a trade war.

---

Apologies for the weird formatting as I am still trying to get my head around this forum.

[Stef N]

Which one is Ribbentrop and which one is Molotov?

[Goldcrest]

Which one is Ribbentrop and which one is Molotov?

I don't know what to believe. On the one hand the 'optics' look chilling, especially in relation to recent history. No respect for borders or geography. The lives of people living it don't seem to have much value? On the other hand, thinking of a transactional leader interested in real estate it might well be a 'positioning' tactic, to force new ways of looking at what appears an intractable problem (the war). If you do that you can get to thinking that less lives will be lost in the future if a 'deal' can be made. I've never been keen on UK troops abroad either (don't think it's helped us) and whether we hold a moral position as easily. And what good is a moral position? I mean ultimately? But then that view ignores real lives and detracts / erodes a sense of human decency...values. I've no idea what's best. Cut the losses and try and shore up your own country's defensive ability? Or be stubborn and continue? Times like this I wish we were Sweden or Switzerland. 
All feels very unsafe and on edge in the world. And how do you do diplomacy anymore? Diplomacy is what will end wars unless protagonists run out of resources. Is there a longer game? Not sure game is the right word however. 
I still believe economics will be the most important determinant ahead.

[Stef N]

Well, you have to give credit to the orange one. He's managed to unite Europe and the British press. That's pretty good going.

[Goldcrest]

Well, you have to give credit to the orange one. He's managed to unite Europe and the British press. That's pretty good going.

Yep. Just been looking at the headlines in the papers by the Lidl checkouts. The Mail wants the "bully" to be prevented from coming to see the King. France and UK united too...Brexit receding and Starmer looking every bit the statesman. 
And Tesla sales down 45%. And I read anti Vance placards out in force where he's gone skiing. 

That Zelenskyy TV spectacle looks like backfiring.....maybe not in Moscow.

[Stef N]

Well, you have to give credit to the orange one. He's managed to unite Europe and the British press. That's pretty good going.

Yep. Just been looking at the headlines in the papers by the Lidl checkouts. The Mail wants the "bully" to be prevented from coming to see the King. France and UK united too...Brexit receding and Starmer looking every bit the statesman. 
And Tesla sales down 45%. And I read anti Vance placards out in force where he's gone skiing. 

That Zelenskyy TV spectacle looks like backfiring.....maybe not in Moscow.

The TV debacle was a complete stitch and only went down well with Vlad and a handful of headbangers. As some wit wrote, when the Mafia shake someone down they do it in the back room, not in front of the world.