Tariffs? Trade Wars

[Stef N]

“They are coming to the table. They want to talk but there’s no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis,” Trump said.

Mafioso shakedown.

[Goldcrest]

Thanks mate, a very interesting read. :-)

“They are coming to the table. They want to talk but there’s no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis,” Trump said.

Mafioso shakedown.

There's an interesting piece by John Harris on what's happening in the US (Guardian). He talks about culture, especially music and how that's always been linked to the idea of a 'free' America, with all it's contradictions ...concluding how Trump isn't America and that we have to have faith in the majority of US people. The comments section is as ever very telling of reactions on it all. 

I think there are signs of protest emerging at the weekend with mass gatherings in many cities. Economists the world over (and now some Republican voices) are talking about a liquidity problem if these tariffs continue. Will the administration continue to play chicken? Or, as your post hints, there's a doubling down? People are being urged to "hang tough"...what the hell does that mean for ordinary people? 

I think one of the main economic benefits for the US is tourism. It's going to be down hugely in the next 4 years. Longer? Who would want to visit and risk being arrested just because of your own viewpoint on something you consider is not good for the people living there..... in the land of free speech. Edit: there again 70+m voted for this and it's not like he hid his plans from people.

[Stef N]

I think there was a malicious intent from his voters in that he would punish other people and not them. A lot of them were looking forward to the lefties and the elites getting a good kicking. Unfortunately they were cheering a man that doesn't care about anyone.
To be honest I have never fancied a holiday in the US, it's never really appealed and now it's a definite no no.

[Stef N]

Sad irony that the American boom was partly helped by scientists fleeing authoritarian states in the early 20th century. The opposite will lead to the bust.

I saw an interesting question earlier about how many people are making money from this fiasco? My theory is that everyone knew that this was a stupid idea so nobody would fall into a trap. I wish I knew more about short-selling and the like to figure out if my theory is near or miles off.

My theory was miles off. Greedy fat pigs gorged on epic market manipulation. Sadly there are no consequences for this collossal fraud.

[Goldcrest]

Thanks mate, a very interesting read. :-)

Sad irony that the American boom was partly helped by scientists fleeing authoritarian states in the early 20th century. The opposite will lead to the bust.

I saw an interesting question earlier about how many people are making money from this fiasco? My theory is that everyone knew that this was a stupid idea so nobody would fall into a trap. I wish I knew more about short-selling and the like to figure out if my theory is near or miles off.

My theory was miles off. Greedy fat pigs gorged on epic market manipulation. Sadly there are no consequences for this collossal fraud.

It's clear there were folk shorting the markets. Bragging about buying low. Analysts also saying it's clear there is little strategy just reactions from day to day. Even supporters (reckon the hardcore base is about 20% according again to knowledgeable commentators) have been struggling to defend events. The smiles and deflections are the giveaways. Of course a good 20% will defend all this no matter what. Signs are again clear though a good number are questioning the administration. A lot of damage has been done and I think some is permanent. Stories everyday now of business failures and shocks in communities. People will know someone who knows someone etc.

Markets and investors will take many months to re-adjust. But on the plus side new trade alliances will be formed. They have to factor in that there is at least 4 more years of this kind of uncertainty, which is a killer to business. 

Could he go from bankrupting a company to doing it to a country? Maybe this is over- thinking it!

As big as Capitol Hill? Surely this is far more lasting. Many films and books to be written as well as stories to grandchildren about when....I mean there has to be a Shakespearean twist to come too.

[Stef N]

Basically tariffs for everything, except the main products that China exports and anything your mates own. MAGAMA.

[Goldcrest]

Looking at the economic data doesn't read so positively over the last 100 days...with the exception of inflation which has dropped from 2.9% to 2.4%. The Dow Jones, S&P500 have all fallen since 20th January of course. Unemployment rates are currently 4.2% up from 4.1% and gas prices have ticked up.
That's just some economic numbers.

In terms of support the American public doesn't appear to be too happy with the economic prospects. Presidential ratings are the lowest for any president in 80 years.

I think it's too early to assess the political (and geopolitical) affects of this second term and it would depend where you sit. The positive is a movement towards Europe for the UK and a move away from over-reliance on the US. People are also voting with their feet regarding tourism plans (not to mention the Tesla knock backs...which you wonder whether a position can be recovered). The tourism forecasts look like reducing income by over 90 billion dollars in this coming year. That has to play out in less jobs.

What next for tariffs I wonder.

Edit. GDP story now breaking....fears of a recession. Huge drop in just 3 months.

https://news.sky.com/story/trump-latest-...s-13209921

https://uk.investing.com/news/economic-i...CH-4056433

[Stef N]

The devil will be in the details, especially regarding agriculture, but so far the trade deal looks ok, albeit some of the tariffs are going back to what we had before.

[Goldcrest]

Thanks mate, a very interesting read. :-)

The devil will be in the details, especially regarding agriculture, but so far the trade deal looks ok, albeit some of the tariffs are going back to what we had before.

Yeah, definitely. Both Starmer and Trump needed something. I reckon more is to come just before meeting Charles. A good week for Starmer probably .... interesting that the Telegraph thinks he has done very well and the Guardian says he has been involved in a hostage negotiation!