Tariffs? Trade Wars

[Goldcrest]

I heard this today, an interesting pod about about McKinley and his love of tarriffs and trump's love of him. Like your first post it shows the historical links to the current madness and the knock on effects.

https://shows.acast.com/the-david-mcwill...y-playbook

Thanks for this!
I've listened to half and the other half is for later. A nice comparison and I didn't know of Trump's interest. 

The points made completely chime with my own reading about losing your allies, trade friendships and all that trust and history you get with doing business. You break these relationships and unlike perhaps the 1930s you have an increasingly globalised world, complex and with multiple supply chains involved for goods. You get counter tariffs and increases in the the price of everything. Inflation creates business uncertainty and you get complications in demand and supply.

Already there is talk of a recession. I can easily see this hugely risky strategy leading to something much worse (labour markets failing) with increasing unemployment. It isn't America First! It's putting the country at risk (and therefore you'll get contagion across the world). 

I know I've this thing about history and approximate 100 year cycles and it's maybe too fanciful. 

I also don't think Trump is being well advised and in fact his behaviour seems less a long term plan but indeed even day by day tweet! Already he is rolling back on his Canadian tariff...just 24/48 hours later. His steel tariffs worldwide couldn't be worse for Port Talbot.

In terms of Russia too I'm reading that their economy is in real problems (having invested about 40% of their wealth in the military). Trump's actions around Ukraine are also worth watching.

But...but...but...the economy is going to bite very hard and could be his downfall. That's if he lasts his term.

[Stef N]

I heard this today, an interesting pod about about McKinley and his love of tarriffs and trump's love of him. Like your first post it shows the historical links to the current madness and the knock on effects.

https://shows.acast.com/the-david-mcwill...y-playbook

Thanks for this!
I've listened to half and the other half is for later. A nice comparison and I didn't know of Trump's interest. 

The points made completely chime with my own reading about losing your allies, trade friendships and all that trust and history you get with doing business. You break these relationships and unlike perhaps the 1930s you have an increasingly globalised world, complex and with multiple supply chains involved for goods. You get counter tariffs and increases in the the price of everything. Inflation creates business uncertainty and you get complications in demand and supply.

Already there is talk of a recession. I can easily see this hugely risky strategy leading to something much worse (labour markets failing) with increasing unemployment. It isn't America First! It's putting the country at risk (and therefore you'll get contagion across the world). 

I know I've this thing about history and approximate 100 year cycles and it's maybe too fanciful. 

I also don't think Trump is being well advised and in fact his behaviour seems less a long term plan but indeed even day by day tweet! Already he is rolling back on his Canadian tariff...just 24/48 hours later. His steel tariffs worldwide couldn't be worse for Port Talbot.

In terms of Russia too I'm reading that their economy is in real problems (having invested about 40% of their wealth in the military). Trump's actions around Ukraine are also worth watching.

But...but...but...the economy is going to bite very hard and could be his downfall. That's if he lasts his term.

It turns out to be quite a good podcast with the recent one bringing more historical context to the current problem in the US, namely the Ming Chinese isolationism and how it set them back hundreds of years. It's quite scary listening and my hope is that the rest of the west is paying a lot of attention.

Anyway, the markets have spoken and are not at all happy with the reckless decision making. If this is part of a masterplan or just a crazy ill-disciplined mess we'll have to see and hope to God there are still some grown ups in America.

[Goldcrest]

I heard this today, an interesting pod about about McKinley and his love of tarriffs and trump's love of him. Like your first post it shows the historical links to the current madness and the knock on effects.

https://shows.acast.com/the-david-mcwill...y-playbook

Thanks for this!
I've listened to half and the other half is for later. A nice comparison and I didn't know of Trump's interest. 

The points made completely chime with my own reading about losing your allies, trade friendships and all that trust and history you get with doing business. You break these relationships and unlike perhaps the 1930s you have an increasingly globalised world, complex and with multiple supply chains involved for goods. You get counter tariffs and increases in the the price of everything. Inflation creates business uncertainty and you get complications in demand and supply.

Already there is talk of a recession. I can easily see this hugely risky strategy leading to something much worse (labour markets failing) with increasing unemployment. It isn't America First! It's putting the country at risk (and therefore you'll get contagion across the world). 

I know I've this thing about history and approximate 100 year cycles and it's maybe too fanciful. 

I also don't think Trump is being well advised and in fact his behaviour seems less a long term plan but indeed even day by day tweet! Already he is rolling back on his Canadian tariff...just 24/48 hours later. His steel tariffs worldwide couldn't be worse for Port Talbot.

In terms of Russia too I'm reading that their economy is in real problems (having invested about 40% of their wealth in the military). Trump's actions around Ukraine are also worth watching.

But...but...but...the economy is going to bite very hard and could be his downfall. That's if he lasts his term.

It turns out to be quite a good podcast with the recent one bringing more historical context to the current problem in the US, namely the Ming Chinese isolationism and how it set them back hundreds of years. It's quite scary listening and my hope is that the rest of the west is paying a lot of attention.

Anyway, the markets have spoken and are not at all happy with the reckless decision making. If this is part of a masterplan or just a crazy ill-disciplined mess we'll have to see and hope to God there are still some grown ups in America.

I thought it was excellent. I listened to it on loud speaker with my wife. I especially like the Irish sensibility too, serious, enquiring and with the humour. He is well researched so it's a history lesson with analysis thrown in. Wish my old history lessons at school could have been like this!
I've read before about the concerns for world wars following on from tariffs. And I can understand how relationships sour so badly. Lose trust and you'll be hard pressed to recover. 
There's been quite a bit of talk too on Trump's economics - one view from the Telegraph is that he's risking a recession because he thinks the US is spending too much and is too reliant on imports and he wants the US to buy American. A kind of shock therapy. Yet, even that view takes into account a huge level of risk. Trump thinks Biden didn't help the economy structurally. Another view is that he will just spook markets creating so much uncertainty and that will lead to companies laying people off, wages tumble, unemployment increases (essentially the hallmarks of a deep recession). And another view is that this is his second term and he may not get a third so he's not bothered! Why would he be? He's not making America great but making America Less (MAL). A nice anagram for the wrongdoings (in lots of policy areas).
Depressing. And unfortunately I don't think yet anyone is going to challenge him. Some commentators who know him say you just have to observe and wait til his actions (not his words) bite. Actions being things that matter and not words.

Anyway, on a positive note I saw this article today:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...f-we-dare/
I'm not a climate denier by the way but would support the industry potential in this article all day long because it would give regions a new identity and at the end of the day we have to not only survive but grow and thrive as a society. It could be a new gold rush (a neat tie in with the podcast!). I love the idea of modern, safe mining (perhaps because mining gave a good deal of some ancestors their chance of making a life for themselves). Maybe people would not want it in their back yards but a serious debate needs to be had I feel. 

The article gives another angle on Trump and Russia and the Ukraine (again it's less to do with ideology but driven - maybe - by the economics as a significant factor. Interested to know what you think of the article (or any other people who might read it).

As for David McWilliams he's now on a listening cycle.

Edit. The first viewing allowed me to read but now behind a pay wall. Quick points....there are huge amounts of rare elements and earths in the UK ..Cornwall, Scotland, Ireland, Wales. All vital across the world. 'Huge' meaning just that. That we have to bite the bullet and invest and get our hands dirty again. I can't recall all names of the minerals.

Try this!
https://www.yahoo.com/news/uk-become-cri...vRoJCxJm6v

[Stef N]

Thanks mate, a very interesting read. :-)

[Goldcrest]

The price of gold has reached an all-time high last week (over £2300 per ounce), up 15% this year. People (investors, countries even) buy gold when they are fearful. China, India, Poland and Turkey especially have been major buyers. The analysis centres around a desire of countries wishing to diversify out of the US economy. Not holding as many US treasury securities in their reserves. Looks like there is a minor panic going on...a fear for the longer term US economy, what might happen to the dollar. The price increase is being driven by banks themselves and indicates they are worried.

[Stef N]

The price of gold has reached an all-time high last week (over £2300 per ounce), up 15% this year. People (investors, countries even) buy gold when they are fearful. China, India, Poland and Turkey especially have been major buyers.  The analysis centres around a desire of countries wishing to diversify out of the US economy. Not holding as many US treasury securities in their reserves. Looks like there is a minor panic going on...a fear for the longer term US economy, what might happen to the dollar. The price increase is being driven by banks themselves and indicates they are worried.

They're doing a Truss, whether intentionally or through epic incompetence is anyone's guess.

---

And I assume we won't be sharing much information with these buffoons anymore.

[Goldcrest]

"And I assume we won't be sharing much information with these buffoons anymore"

Reading this morning that many countries are now considering either ramping up their existing nuclear capability or planning to build it because of the loss of trust in the US. The world will be a different place over the next 4 years because of this adminstration.

The loss of trust is alienating close allies e.g. Canada - and you can easily imagine how relationships will sour further.

The various analyses I read (or listen to) across many parts of the media all come to a fairly shared view - that eventually this will bite, and there will be a turning point (as yet unknown ) and that the economy will fail. At such a time the administration will be increasingly judged as one that has ruined a country - not made it great. That it was actually just about one person ...that a load of people were excited about following / or too scared to challenge.

It could take a few years mind.

[Stef N]

I saw this and thought you may appreciate it.

[Goldcrest]

Interesting development in France.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/m...rump-tesla?

Also last night's Newsnight was interesting...a billionaire friend of DT. He was asked about markets, company share prices and currencies tanking....it was a great buying opportunity for him!
I thought it was an insight into the transactional nature of this administration. It's less government for the majority but an opportunity for the very few rich.

[Stef N]

When you try to boycott these things you soon realise how much they have taken over without anyone really noticing, especially anything tech related.

My personal boycott;
Amazon I don't use anymore. They weren't much cheaper anyways and I can get what I need from other places (most companies have got they're delveries on a par nowadays.)
Google is tougher because they have their fingers in many pies. Google search can sod off because it was getting poor anyway.
Facebook I never use their products because of their actions during brexit.
X has been dumped.
Fast food is easy to leave as there are much better options available.