Tariffs? Trade Wars

[Goldcrest]

Well, you have to give credit to the orange one. He's managed to unite Europe and the British press. That's pretty good going.

Yep. Just been looking at the headlines in the papers by the Lidl checkouts. The Mail wants the "bully" to be prevented from coming to see the King. France and UK united too...Brexit receding and Starmer looking every bit the statesman. 
And Tesla sales down 45%. And I read anti Vance placards out in force where he's gone skiing. 

That Zelenskyy TV spectacle looks like backfiring.....maybe not in Moscow.

The TV debacle was a complete stitch and only went down well with Vlad and a handful of headbangers. As some wit wrote, when the Mafia shake someone down they do it in the back room, not in front of the world.

I never thought I'd see a day when a US government would be in an alliance with Russia, even voting with them and North Korea in the UN vote. Quite unbelievable times.

[Stef N]

I'm not sure what Starmer can do now. Carry on thinking that trump can be persuaded or kick him into touch and hope the remaining allies step up.

[Goldcrest]

I'm not sure what Starmer can do now. Carry on thinking that trump can be persuaded or kick him into touch and hope the remaining allies step up.

Nor me. I read Cockburn's piece in the iPaper and Jenkins in the Guardian today. Both say that talk is fine but that's all it is and that in some ways all the talk is about is ramping up defence for a fight... and battle talk basically. Same in the Commons yesterday (the whole house barring Farage seemed united....a pleasant change and it made you feel patriotic). Yet, what's this about really? Europe cannot fund Ukraine (the UK is struggling to fund ourselves and every other bit of society and infrastructure generally). Jenkins even compared the talk to Dad's Army! (unless I've got the two pieces mixed up here and it was Cockburn!). The point was that this isn't 1940 or even 1980 but 2025. 

The thing is I can't see Trump changing tack. I think the US is abandoning Europe (unsure about the UK too). This change will have huge long term repercussions - in relationships...won't it?

Europe is on its own and will have to unite fully somehow and that clearly includes us. I'm still nervous of putting troops in Ukraine too given recent history in conflicts. That said, Starmer talks well and has gained positive support and that includes most of the press. So there is a unity .... Good to see.

I can see an argument that Europe could be seen as moving towards a war rather than away from one given all the talk, even if I don't think I subscribe to that argument. I can also see that 'negotiations' look far too one-sided and certainly not a just or moral resolution for many.

There is definitely 'activity' going on in the skies, on IT systems and so on. Far more is going on than we are party to.

If the allies are going to step up it will be years won't it? Or decades?

The thing is Trump has been the catalyst for all this talk - for good or bad.

[Stef N]

Obviously the news is all.about Trump's second 'era' and he has stated he loves the word 'tariff'. Clearly, countries are going to retaliate. Will his tactics work or is this incredibly reckless? 

I've been reading about the Great Depression and how trade policies then didn't help at all. There were many factors but economic confidence was frail.

Surely, the short term prospects would indicate a likelihood of rising prices domestically... inflationary pressure also? 

Article attached for interest.(Canadian source). I'm unsure whether there is an interest in this subject but it's one I've been following.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/t...ade-policy

Going back to your original post and now that he has imposed tarriffs I still feel as if it is the most reckless, clueless and economically idiotic (it makes Brexit look a sound idea) move he could have made. I suppose he was trying to scare other countries into doing something for him but it looks like it will backfire as none are backing down.
Americans are going to have to get used to much higher prices and he will have to use his great tactic of blaming everyone else for cover.

[Goldcrest]

Obviously the news is all.about Trump's second 'era' and he has stated he loves the word 'tariff'. Clearly, countries are going to retaliate. Will his tactics work or is this incredibly reckless? 

I've been reading about the Great Depression and how trade policies then didn't help at all. There were many factors but economic confidence was frail.

Surely, the short term prospects would indicate a likelihood of rising prices domestically... inflationary pressure also? 

Article attached for interest.(Canadian source). I'm unsure whether there is an interest in this subject but it's one I've been following.

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/t...ade-policy

Going back to your original post and now that he has imposed tarriffs I still feel as if it is the most reckless, clueless and economically idiotic (it makes Brexit look a sound idea) move he could have made. I suppose he was trying to scare other countries into doing something for him but it looks like it will backfire as none are backing down.
Americans are going to have to get used to much higher prices and he will have to use his great tactic of blaming everyone else for cover.

But can he bring down the price of eggs? That's the question. Let's pray for all America that he can.

[Stef N]

They're smuggling eggs from Canada in big boxes of Fentanyl.

[Goldcrest]

They're smuggling eggs from Canada in big boxes of Fentanyl.

Big majority for Carney. And most of Canada now completely united against the "existential" threat from one of their biggest allies! Unimaginable really but think as a variety of commentators have said you have to take Trump literally at his word ... and not try and see some kind of strategy underneath where you might find a hope that matches what you want.

Tesla sales tanking everywhere I note too.

[Stef N]

They're smuggling eggs from Canada in big boxes of Fentanyl.

Big majority for Carney. And most of Canada now completely united against the "existential" threat from one of their biggest allies! Unimaginable really but think as a variety of commentators have said you have to take Trump literally at his word ... and not try and see some kind of strategy underneath  where you might find a hope that matches what you want.

Tesla sales tanking everywhere I note too.

I think Carney will be a boon for Canada. The way he handled the brexiters shows that he won't be swayed by idiots and bullies.

I wonder if you saw Andrew Neil's article finally realising that Trump is exactly what millions have been saying he is for years?!

[Goldcrest]

They're smuggling eggs from Canada in big boxes of Fentanyl.

Big majority for Carney. And most of Canada now completely united against the "existential" threat from one of their biggest allies! Unimaginable really but think as a variety of commentators have said you have to take Trump literally at his word ... and not try and see some kind of strategy underneath  where you might find a hope that matches what you want.

Tesla sales tanking everywhere I note too.

I think Carney will be a boon for Canada. The way he handled the brexiters shows that he won't be swayed by idiots and bullies.

I wonder if you saw Andrew Neil's article finally realising that Trump is exactly what millions have been saying he is for years?!

On the US version of The Rest is Politics Scaramucci says Trump is "hyper masculine" (a term I've not come across) but Carney is the real deal (properly masculine) and no push over. He thinks Canada can do deals and their economy can cope without the US. 

Trump has escalated the trade wars today (I thought he would do) and markets are reacting in a very predictable way. Trump's actions seem unchecked and he doesn't appear to be wanting advice or guidance (filling his closest advisory group with women he likes, sychophants and yes men). 

I'm still worried about further market spookery.

[Stef N]

I heard this today, an interesting pod about about McKinley and his love of tarriffs and trump's love of him. Like your first post it shows the historical links to the current madness and the knock on effects.

https://shows.acast.com/the-david-mcwill...y-playbook